Walt Disney World General
Topic: Frigid January Occupancy Numbers

#	Author	Message
111	brerroadrunner Thu 12/4/2008 10:36a	You are correct that the real estate market is hit harder in Florida and California. I am a Realtor in the Midwest and our area did not have the run up on prices as bad as the coast, but our housing prices are dropping, fortunately not as drastically as other areas. But, no one is buying. Everyone is waiting for it to bottom out. Interest rates are still good, prices are lower, and there are some fantastic offerings out there. But you can’t get anyone to take advantage of it. Everyone is to scared right now. Our phones are not ringing. This is hurting many, many people. Those who need to sell and can’t find any buyers. My take on all those people who are upside own on their mortgages and bought high should just be patient. It’s just like the stock market. You only loose if you sell now. Wait it out. The real estate market will recover, prices will rebound and you will have equity (Only if you stay out of the HELOC) The media dealt the housing market a terrible blow the last couple of years. They constantly reported how the sky was falling and everyone started believing it was, when in actuality, some areas were thriving! The media had a big influence on the election like they had a big influence on the housing market.
112	itsme Thu 12/4/2008 11:33a	The banks created part of the housing issues themselves, People wanting to live above their means and the media were the other parts. The banks made it to easy for people to buy homes they had no business buying with creative loans, alot of them are the ones that are now hurting and helping bring the market down. To many people today have the thought process that if they have $100 in their pocket they feel the need to spend $130.
113	brerroadrunner Thu 12/4/2008 11:38a	So true....
114	SuperDry Thu 12/4/2008 1:03p	Hey RoadTrip & Mr X: let's all try to calm down. We're all just friends trying to have a conversation here. However, I do have to make a comment about what RoadTrip has had to say about the financial situation and it not being that bad. We all approach things from our own points of view and our own life experience - this is only natural. Based on what RoadTrip has shared with us in the past, he: - works for the gov't, which means: - he has a generous set of benefits - he has very little chance of having his pay or benefits cut substantially, if at all - his employer is unlikely to go bankrupt or out of business - is unlikely to lose any vested retirement benefits in a bankruptcy proceeding - is unlikely to lose his job - lives in an area that did not experience the crazy appreciation of house values that many of the large population centers in the country have had to deal with But that set or similar sets of circumstances make up a relatively minor portion of the American workforce. My opinion is that RT underestimates the degree to which the stock, credit, housing, and job/employment markets affect the average Joe. And I can think and say that without calling him an idiot, or even thinking that he's one. But that's just one man's opinion.
115	SuperDry Thu 12/4/2008 1:25p	<<< ***just got a letter from AmEx this week -- after buying his son a brand new car for college for $18,000 cash -- they told him they had reviewed his file and were lowering his $14,000 limit to $6,000 (he owes them about $5,800). Told the wife to forget about Christmas shopping.*** >>> What struck me about the above situation is that someone apparently was in a situation where they had $18,000 cash, $5,800 owed on a credit card with a $14,000 limit, and chose to use all of the cash to buy a new car for someone else (their son), leaving himself with no cash. Then, when the bank lowered the credit limit to just above his current balance, Christmas shopping got canceled. That doesn't sound like a good way to handle money under any circumstances.
116	RoadTrip Thu 12/4/2008 2:14p	<<However, I do have to make a comment about what RoadTrip has had to say about the financial situation and it not being that bad. We all approach things from our own points of view and our own life experience - this is only natural.>> I can admit that. It is something we all do. Of course when I think of everyone I know, who do I come up with? People from work. After spending 30 years at the U of M, most of my friends are also U employees. My best friend from college is not a U employee, but is self-employed. He recently bought a $1.2 million house (without a smoke and mirrors loan), so he apparently isn't doing too badly either. So I must admit, I really don't know anyone who is hurting. <<My opinion is that RT underestimates the degree to which the stock, credit, housing, and job/employment markets affect the average Joe.>> This is where I think fear takes over. I know people are WORRIED about their stock, credit, housing, and job market. But for how many people is this a REALISTIC worry? Right now we have about 6% unemployment. Even the pessimists are not projecting a peak unemployment rate higher than 8.5%. Now while it will be a personal tragedy for those 8.5%, that means 91.8% really don't have cause to worry about their jobs. Housing also impacts a relatively few number of people. In most U.S. markets if you have been in your home 4 years or more it is STILL worth more than what you paid for it. Most people probably worry about the value of their house, but relatively few of them have any real reason to do so. The same goes for the stock market. Everyone worries about how it has been in free-fall over the past year. But again, how many TRULY need to worry about it? Anyone who puts money in the market that they need for current expenses is nuts in the first place, so we won't worry about them. For most people, investments are done looking to the long term. Unless a person plans to retire or has some other pressing need like funding their kid’s college in the next 3-4 years that really shouldn't be a problem for them. For those impacted it is terrible. But how many is it really hurting? The thing that I hate is that while relatively few people have a REAL reason to be scared, virtually everyone is. Why? Because of the gloom and doomers in the media and in public forums like this. You get everyone scared and they stop spending. Everyone stops spending and then things get REALLY bad. That is what is happening right now. The gloom and doomers have created a self-fulfilling prophecy.
117	Mr X Thu 12/4/2008 3:34p	***<<So does that mean that paying my Amex in full each month is not helping me?>> Spirit is out to lunch on this one.*** Wow. RoadTrip calling someone else "out to lunch". Great irony there! ***I have never doubted that some people are in serious financial trouble now. But even if those in bad shape are 20% of the population, that still means that the great majority, 80%, are doing OK.*** Again pointing out your extreme naivety. In the early 1930's, unemployment peaked at a "mere" 25%. I guess that means 75% of the folks back then were just fine. Right? ***Please at least attempt to keep your insults accurate. I was last positive about the market (at least on any post I could find) on October 15, 2009.*** Firstly, I wasn't talking about the *last* time you were positive on the market. You were bloviating your bad advice all the way down long before then. And mocking those of us who were concerned. Nice try.
118	Mr X Thu 12/4/2008 3:35p	***The media breathlessly reports data that means nothing and declares that the world is ending. Folks like you apparently suck it up like a Hoover.*** Hardly. I don't pay attention to the media, nor do I trust them. I was warning about this stuff LONG before it became a media issue. Search around, you'll find it (along with folks like you telling me I was a paranoid loon). ;)
119	barboy Thu 12/4/2008 3:37p	///What struck me about the above situation is that someone apparently was in a situation where they had $18,000 cash, $5,800 owed on a credit card with a $14,000 limit, and chose to use all of the cash to buy a new car for someone else (their son), leaving himself with no cash. Then, when the bank lowered the credit limit to just above his current balance, Christmas shopping got canceled. That doesn't sound like a good way to handle money under any circumstances./// You beat me to it SD. At face value(maybe there are extenuating circumstances that would justify the purchase) a move like that looks terribly irresponsible. I would think paying down a credit card should come first before giving a son or daughter a luxury item that depreciates faster than housing in this day and age(in many cases cars for students are not essential items but more luxury in nature).
120	RoadTrip Thu 12/4/2008 3:40p	<<In the early 1930's, unemployment peaked at a "mere" 25%. I guess that means 75% of the folks back then were just fine. Right?>> Comparisons to the Great Depression are absurd. Which is pretty much par for the course with you. <<The shadow of the '30s looms over every economic downturn or crisis, no matter how modest. Pundits were quick to invoke the Depression as a cautionary model during the stock market crash of 1987, the bailout of the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and the dot-com meltdown of 2000 and 2001. But there are vast differences between the 1930s and today. U.S. unemployment reached 25% during the Depression; last month it was reported at 4.8%. The international industrial economy was a shambles in the '30s. Today it is coming off a global boom. "I've been asked many times whether we will have another Great Depression," said David M. Kennedy, a Stanford University history professor and the author of "Freedom From Fear," a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the Depression and World War II. "My standard answer is that we won't have that one again -- I'd be surprised to have one of that seriousness and duration. But that doesn't mean we wouldn't have a catastrophe we haven't seen before." Economists and historians say the most important difference between today's economic environment and the old days is the government's role. "There's a perception now that you don't stand around at the central bank and whack people with a ruler for making bad decisions," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at New York-based Fact and Opinion Economics. "Instead, you do something." Nothing demonstrates that as vividly as the Fed's orchestration of the takeover of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. over the weekend. The deal staved off a possible Bear bankruptcy, which the central bank feared might traumatize financial systems worldwide. The resolution drew a stark contrast with the Fed's role in the 1930 collapse of the Bank of the United States, a New York institution largely serving Jewish immigrants. The failure was then the largest in U.S. history, and the Fed's inability to arrange a rescue by Wall Street banks -- including J.P. Morgan & Co., the predecessor to the "white knight" in the Bear Stearns case -- caused a cataclysmic loss of confidence in the entire national banking system. That fueled a panic that historians regard as a key cause of the Depression. The Fed's relative powerlessness in 1930 led directly to New Deal reforms that vastly expanded its authority. Some of the agency's new powers, such as its ability to lend directly to brokers and investment banks, were seldom or never used until the current crisis.>> Source: http://www.latimes.com/busines...00.story

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