Walt Disney World General
Topic: Frigid January Occupancy Numbers

#	Author	Message
121	Mr X Thu 12/4/2008 3:42p	***And I can think and say that without calling him an idiot, or even thinking that he's one.*** Well, in fairness I did say "idiot ideas". I don't think that RT is an idiot necessarily, though I do think he is naive in the extreme (and you guys discussed that above and it does make sense...if you're living in a sort of bubble area where everyone is fine it's tough to think otherwise despite the facts...I don't suppose folks living in Cali or Michigan or Manhattan have quite the same take on things though). Also, it's a little bit of turnaround here, since old RT took great joy in mocking me and calling me "paranoid" when I was warning people about the market situation (kinda like McCain and his "the economy is fine", in a microcosm).
122	Mr X Thu 12/4/2008 3:45p	***Comparisons to the Great Depression are absurd.*** I agree. This situation is entirely different. But it wasn't a comparison. It was an observation about your naivety (and plenty of people said similar stuff just like you back then, too). ***Which is pretty much par for the course with you.*** Says the naive guy who mocked the folks who were worried about the economy months/years ago.
123	RoadTrip Thu 12/4/2008 3:46p	<<Also, it's a little bit of turnaround here, since old RT took great joy in mocking me and calling me "paranoid" when I was warning people about the market situation (kinda like McCain and his "the economy is fine", in a microcosm).>> I never mocked you. I merely compared you to a well known and much beloved literary character. ;-)
124	Mr X Thu 12/4/2008 3:47p	Sure..but it didn't work out so well for you since the markets came crashing down on top of all of us while you said it.
125	Mr X Thu 12/4/2008 3:53p	I warn of trouble, RT calls me "Chicken Little", and in that very same week the markets fall some 18-20 percent. Yeah. *I'M* the one with the problem. <--rolls eyes.
126	RoadTrip Thu 12/4/2008 3:53p	<<Sure..but it didn't work out so well for you since the markets came crashing down on top of all of us while you said it.>> Yes, but did you have to call me an idiot? Why not refer to me as Professor Pangloss and leave it at that?
127	barboy Thu 12/4/2008 4:01p	///I don't think that RT is an idiot necessarily/// I don't think RT is an idiot.... period. RT, like many on here, articulates an issue well, very well. I've disagreed with him too many times to count but that's not the point here; he intellectualizes better than most.
128	MPierce Thu 12/4/2008 4:02p	You two boys are really close to getting a time-out!
129	hopemax Thu 12/4/2008 4:13p	> Right now we have about 6% unemployment. Even the pessimists are not projecting a peak unemployment rate higher than 8.5%.< Officially we have 6.5% unemployment. November statistics come out tomorrow. However, in the late 80s/early 90s the formula which measured unemployment was changed. If you use the formula by which unemployment was calculated in the past, say the 70's, there are other people that need to be included. I haven't seen the most recent number, but I think it bumps it up to between 8-9%. The BLS also lists the number of people who are working part time because they could not find full time employment aka "underemployed", and "discouraged workers." For Oct, those numbers were 6.7 million and 5 million respectively. The "official" number of unemployed in October was 10.1 million, the other two groups outnumber them with 11.7 million. Add them up together and 13.1% of the labor population is unemployed or underemployed. And for economic pessimists, Paul Krugman posted in his blog today. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.c...xt-year/ "So here’s what I’m wondering: will it, in fact, even be possible to pull the economy out of its nosedive before unemployment goes into double digits? I’m starting to wonder." Frankly, I think many economists have been trying to heed the "let's not panic the markets and everyone else," and trying to present an optimistic picture. But the more numbers that trickle out...the more dire hints and predictions start creeping into the dialog. I think the economists are more scared than they are willing to say on TV or in print, because they don't want to be responsible for freaking everyone out, even if it is the truth. As for the CC debts, vs car loans vs Christmas. I know there are people that have been "gaming" the system. They put their money in a CD or something earning 4% interest, and carry a high balance on their 0% or low percentage CC. In theory, when the interest rate on the card resets, they have the money to pay it off but they made money in the mean time, or find another CC to transfer the balance to. Spirit didn't say whether the person has the money to pay the card off, but just rolled it over in a CD or something that would make it unavailable before Christmas. That type of "game" has been profitable for some people, but that game of musical chairs is over now too.
130	hopemax Fri 12/5/2008 7:59a	November's numbers...533,000 jobs lost, the most in 34 years. Official number now at 6.7% "The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force. Economists thought many of those people probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November 2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...709.html Thank goodness for people leaving the work force out of frustration? Bet those 422,000 are gonna answer the question, "What are you going to do now?" "I'm going to go to Disney World." More quotes... "The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting." "Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse. Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated. Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of 240,000." I'm not feeling so comfortable with the predictions, if they keep underestimating the job loss figures...what does that say for other predictions?

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