| # | Author | Message |
41
| davewasbaloo
Tue 12/2/2008 3:15p | To be fair, these are just the notional forecasts. It is likely people will not book as far out due to personal uncertainties, people now saving and living payckeck to paycheck, or fear their air carriers may collapse.
It could be the notional forecast are at 35%, but actual room utilisation will be higher at the end of the accounting periods through last minute bookings. |
42
| hopemax
Tue 12/2/2008 3:16p | >The bottom line... most people are broke. And they are going to be that way for a while. And without access to cheap, easy home equity credit the spending spree is finished for now.<
Read today, that industry analysts expect $2 Trillion in credit card lines to be pulled back over the next 18 months.
http://www.reuters.com/article...20081201
"The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted. "In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form of credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent.""
The fallout from everything is going to be, um...interesting. |
43
| MPierce
Tue 12/2/2008 3:42p | >> Read today, that industry analysts expect $2 Trillion in credit card lines to be pulled back over the next 18 months. <<
Darn, there goes that 5 series BMW I was going to purchase.
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44
| RoadTrip
Tue 12/2/2008 3:44p | People ARE NOT BROKE. They are scared and not spending. There are trouble spots in the country as far as real estate goes. There are industries where unemployment is bad. But overall the country is not in terrible shape. Not unless people let the fear get to them.
We have as much available to us on our home equity line of credit as we had five years ago. We have more credit available on our charge cards than we did 5 years ago. We are not unique. We are not wealthy. We have steady jobs and have used credit very cautiously. We are not the only people out there like that.
We will get out of the current recession no matter what people do. But we will get out a lot quicker if they stop panicking.
As for January attendance. We have been to WDW every January for the past 8 years. Typically we stay at Boardwalk; occasionally we've stayed at the Wilderness Cabins or Old Key West. The only one of those resorts that has seemed fairly full is Boardwalk. The Yacht Club, Swan and Dolphin are also quite full during that period.
Why? Because of all the people with "Hello, My Name Is XXXXX" stickers on their shirts. The Epcot resorts are big convention resorts. If businesses are cutting way back on sending people to conventions I can see how that would impact the Epcot resorts.
As for overall attendance; virtually every ride during Janaury (except Soarin') has a line of 10 minutes or less. You rarely have trouble getting into most restaurants at the last minute without a reservation... even WITH the Disney Dining Plan in existence. My experience would indicate that with the exception of Convention attendees, January is a VERY slow time at WDW.
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45
| Sport Goofy
Tue 12/2/2008 3:50p | << People ARE NOT BROKE. They are scared and not spending. >>
Why would they be scared if they weren't broke?
People may not be broke, but they are now in position where they have to live within their means. A large swath of this country hasn't done that for 2 decades. |
46
| RoadTrip
Tue 12/2/2008 3:51p | <<Read today, that industry analysts expect $2 Trillion in credit card lines to be pulled back over the next 18 months.>>
What % of that Trillion will have absolutely no impact on people? I probably have 70K of credit available that I've never used and never will use. If my limits were all cut by 50% it would be a big who cares? It wouldn't even impact my FICO.
Again, I am certainly not unique. There are many people out there who have credit cards with significant credit limits who NEVER use them.
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47
| RoadTrip
Tue 12/2/2008 3:53p | <<Why would they be scared if they weren't broke?>>
They are scared because the media is telling them that they will be broke. Which for a very small percentage of the population will be absolutely true. But for most people it is not.
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48
| MPierce
Tue 12/2/2008 3:53p | >> As for January attendance. We have been to WDW every January for the past 8 years. Typically we stay at Boardwalk; occasionally we've stayed at the Wilderness Cabins or Old Key West. The only one of those resorts that has seemed fairly full is Boardwalk. The Yacht Club, Swan and Dolphin are also quite full during that period <<
The last 4 years we stayed at WL in late January seemed very full. |
49
| RoadTrip
Tue 12/2/2008 3:54p | Let's get away from this line of discussion. One more post like these and we'll have vbdad in here talking about offshoring jobs.
;-)
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50
| MPierce
Tue 12/2/2008 3:56p | >> Again, I am certainly not unique. There are many people out there who have credit cards with significant credit limits who NEVER use them. <<
Yes, but they still can't afford to travel by Am Trak! :-)
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