Disney Animated Films
Topic: Up is a box office bonanza!

#	Author	Message
11	Dlmusic Sat 6/6/2009 7:46p	<<Not this again. This was the exact same rhetoric for WALL*E last year: http://mb.laughingplace.com/Ms...-P-3.asp Dlmusic stated: "Based on these early numbers, it seems likely WALL-E is headed for a $250+ million gross and still has potential for over $300 million if this weekend goes very well.">> Point well taken. However, I did learn from WALL-E not to jump on the bandwagon too fast. WALL-E had great weekday results and then had a really bad Friday (-61% drop). It was highly unusual for Pixar and is the worst drop in the studios history. So I wasn't expecting that. This time around I waited until the Friday numbers came in to make sure that this wasn't a reoccurring pattern. It's not. Up only dropped 37.2% on Friday, which is the best dropoff Pixar has ever had. In other words, the polar opposite of WALL-E. The movie has been following Finding Nemo's pattern almost exactly. Another big thing that I didn't mention in the original post is that Up has almost zero competition. Land of the Lost is a complete bomb, and the only other family film is the weak looking Eddie Murphy vehicle Imagine That. The only movie that could potentially hurt Up is Transformers which doesn't come out for two weekends which is also catering to a male audience (I doubt many young girls are clamoring for the movie). At any rate, there will be some fallout but again I would say they are pretty different audiences. It's only in July that there is another high profile family release in Ice Age 3. But that leaves Up with 25 more days to accumulate some cash. Now I certainly can understand skepticisms considering I spoke too soon on Wall-E. But Up really looks poised to go the distance and I will be completely shocked to not see it make in the $275-300 million range.
12	retlawfan Sat 6/6/2009 9:09p	I thought I saw Roy O. Disney on the brochure also.
13	Mr X Sun 6/7/2009 2:29a	***WALL-E had great weekday results and then had a really bad Friday (-61% drop). It was highly unusual for Pixar and is the worst drop in the studios history. So I wasn't expecting that.*** Didn't Batman open that day or something?
14	Dlmusic Sun 6/7/2009 5:51a	The new movie that weekend was Hancock which opened to $62 million. I don't think it was the determining factor in the big drop for WALL-E. I just think that WALL-E rubbed some people the wrong way. It seemed to be a more polarizing film than Up. While I've seen some people upset about the more heavy elements of Up, I can imagine the perceived social/political commentary of WALL-E could have had a more negative impact on the film.
15	DAR Sun 6/7/2009 8:24a	The thing about UP is that schools are starting to let out and basically for the month of June it will be able to corner the family market for itself until Transformers comes out and then Ice Age 3 the first week of July. But there's a very good chance that UP will become Pixar's second highest grosser after Finding Nemo.
16	Dlmusic Sun 6/7/2009 12:02p	After two weekends Up is: $7 million behind Nemo $10 million ahead of Wall-E $20 million ahead of Cars $28 million ahead of Ratatouille In comparison to previous Pixar dropoffs for the weekend: Finding Nemo -34% Up -35% Ratatouille - 38% Wall-E -49% Cars - 44% Unless Up crashes and burns, $250+ million should be a lock. The film started with $8 million more than Cars (which made $244) and has increased its lead to $20 and seems to have much stronger legs. It looks like Nemo numbers ($340 million) are unlikely, but $300 million is still out of the picture.
17	Dlmusic Sun 6/7/2009 12:02p	I meant $300 million is still not out of the picture.
18	DlandDug Sun 6/7/2009 12:09p	And the players are again assembled, I see... The statement "Based on these early numbers, it seems likely WALL-E is headed for a $250+ million gross and still has potential for over $300 million if this weekend goes very well." was quite reasonable, as it was predicated on an "if." As in, "if this weekend goes very well." The weekend didn't go very well, and the prediction (which wasn't so much a prediction as a guess) proved untrue. What is still baffling to me is how it can be said that a film that makes twenty million dollars more fails to surpass its predecessor.
19	DlandDug Sun 6/7/2009 1:05p	As far as box office competition goes, it is a significant factor. The comparison of Ratatouille to Wall-E was tempered by the box office performance of other films. Specifically (from last year's thread): "Yes, Hancock is sucking up a lot of ticket sales. It earned more than twice as much as Ratatouille's challenger last year (Transformers) did on July 4. Even more telling, this year Wanted (at $20 million) earned as much as ALL EIGHT of the films that followed Ratatouille in 2007." Wall-E was in a highly competitive field. It opened between two major 2008 tentpoles, Iron Man and Dark Knight. Iron Man had been in theaters for a month (opened May 2) and was still going strong. Leading up to Wall-E were a trio of films that did fairly good box office (Indiana Jones on May 22, Incredible Hulk on June 13 and Get Smart on June 20), as well as one certified big hit, Kung Fu Panda on June 6. But Wall-E's opening weekend was almost immediately blunted by Hancock's 4th of July weekend, followed two weeks later by the juggernaut that was Dark Knight. The saving grace of Wall-E was the fact that it stayed and stayed in theaters. It didn't officially close until September 11. (Although it was rereleased around Christmas on a few screens.) This year, UP has a much easier ride (as did Ratatouille), and appears to have much wider appeal. There are two pretty big hits in theaters, Star Trek (May 8) and Night at the Museum, which opened a week before UP. But Up has clearly trounced Museum two weekends in a row. This weekend, UP has beaten Hangover, to spend a second weekend at number one. UP appears to have a fairly easy ride until June 24, when Transformers opens. (But there's no assurance that Transformers will be a hit.) Ice Age 3 follows on July 1. (That's a lock to be number one in its first weekend). It is not until July 15 when Harry Potter arrives that UP should definitively be scraping along. It could be worse. We could be championing Land of the Lost. It not only failed to hit number one on its opening weekend, it actually declined from Friday to Saturday. Must be the word-of-mouth...
20	DAR Sun 6/7/2009 4:40p	<<But there's no assurance that Transformers will be a hit.)>> This seems to be the surest bet of the summer according to just about....everyone.

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