World Events
Topic: The Recession is Over!

#	Author	Message
11	Mr X Thu 10/29/2009 8:21p	Um, pass healthcare reform and end the wars? And after that slash the military budget by 75%, thus still spending twice as much on military readiness as the next biggest spender (currently China), and in the process feed the hungry of our nation and easily balance the budget.
12	davewasbaloo Fri 10/30/2009 12:59a	Mr X for president! He'd get my vote with that manifesto. Here in the UK it's tough. Brown was really a key architect in the bale out strategy, and it is working in the US, Germany and France. Sadly it is not here. The lost another 2.25 in the last quarter, now making this the worst recession since the war. Unemployment now affects 17% of the adult population and is getting worse. House prices are improving somewhat, we almost have positive equity again on a house we bought 5 years ago. But the credit card companies are screwing people left, right and center, and my parents have their first court date on my birthday next month. I am off to the Bank of England next week for a conference on the impact of the economy for government agencies. It does not look pretty. And although we are desperately trying to get our overheads down, there is no work available for my wife at the mo and that means some of the pieces of work I am looking at are 3 month contracts 300 miles from home. Really good! Not. Ironically, while we were away at Legoland and Chessington this week however, the parks were rammed.
13	davewasbaloo Fri 10/30/2009 1:00a	That said, I think whereas in the past people would flock to DLP or Spain, or ever WDW for the October vacation, more people like us are staying closer to home.
14	Mr X Fri 10/30/2009 1:26a	***Brown was really a key architect in the bale out strategy, and it is working in the US, Germany and France. Sadly it is not here. The lost another 2.25 in the last quarter, now making this the worst recession since the war. Unemployment now affects 17% of the adult population and is getting worse.*** Ouch. Any theories about what the difference may be? Or just random chance, you think. ***That said, I think whereas in the past people would flock to DLP or Spain, or ever WDW for the October vacation, more people like us are staying closer to home.*** I'd say that's a safe bet. That was SuperDry's theory about why TDR has been so slammed (even DisneySea has increased substantially it seems) even with Japan in such a deep recession. But it makes sense when you think about it. There must be droves of people from far reaching parts of the country who might otherwise vacation overseas, but instead chose the cheaper Disney option instead (or, even people who might go to TDR every other year and a more exotic place like Hawaii in the alternate years are now going back to TDR all the time).
15	davewasbaloo Fri 10/30/2009 2:02a	I do have a few key theories. One is the fact that the UK mainstay businesses of the British economy are international finance (ouch), the service industry (ouch), and vehicle manufacture (ouch). Most of the white collar jobs we used to have like in IT were outsourced to India in the 80's and 90's (far more than in the US, again the UK seemed to lead this charge). Unlike the previous recessions, it is the middle class that is really taking a hit. And also, there is a huge right wing backlash right now, where people want to cut spending and immigration, when actually, that is exactly what is needed. The prime minister has next to no support, even within his own party, so very little is working. It is a shame - the media are at war with him, the right wing are using every opportunity to manipulate the masses, and sadly Brown does not have the charisma of Blair and is suffering for it. And Bush's wars have tarnished the image of government along with an expenses scandle by all the political parties. No body is cooperating here and the industrial complex is not geared for this. Also, a lot of the economy development was based on housing expansion plans, gearing up the workforce in construction and preparing for the Olympics including major railway improvements (more are on hold or scrapped).
16	wahooskipper Fri 10/30/2009 5:04a	Unfortunately, I still know too many people out of work...who are making every effort to get a job. So, for them, the recession ain't over. But, I do see some good signs, such as the housing market starting to move a bit here in South Florida...one of the worst hit areas for forclosure. I've never been much of a pessimist so I do believe things are on the way back. And, of course, everytime I'm at Best Buy the place is packed so someone is spending money.
17	SingleParkPassholder Fri 10/30/2009 6:18a	"Post 5 nailed it for me." Even with the typos?
18	mawnck Fri 10/30/2009 7:27a	>>Any theories about what the difference may be?<< Honest counting? I'll stop being negative when it starts making legitimate sense to stop being negative. Christmas will tell us a lot.
19	Sport Goofy Fri 10/30/2009 7:35a	<< But, I do see some good signs, such as the housing market starting to move a bit here in South Florida...one of the worst hit areas for forclosure. >> I know that the housing market has hit a lot of people hard, but the idea that the housing market "coming back" indicates a rebound in the economy is not good. The whole housing bubble was caused by a pyramid scheme. It was not healthy. If we start to see a rapid turnaround an re-inflation of housing prices, it's a sign of worse things to come and not better. I think a lot of people fail to understand that real estate is a net drain on economic resources and not a contributor to the overall economy. Once constructed, real estate consumes far more economic resources than it ever gives back. Conversely, activities like manufacturing contribute a great deal to the economy. Americans need to stop looking at real estate as an "investment" or driver of economic growth. Affordable residential real estate in communities that are planned to include a diversity of economic activities will drive our economic recovery far more than barfed up condos or tract homes along cul-de-sacs in suburbia.
20	skinnerbox Fri 10/30/2009 7:44a	<<Christmas will tell us a lot.>> Consumer sector analysts are already predicting a poor turnout for holiday shopping. Unless retailers dramatically slash prices, very few are going to do well this year. Walmart, Apple, and Best Buy will do well, as usual; everyone else will suffer.

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