Disney Live-Action Films
Topic: Enchanted B.O. Magic

#	Author	Message
11	JeffG Sun 11/25/2007 5:44p	That is correct (at least among films that opened on the day before Thanksgiving), according to this chart on Box Office Mojo: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/a lltime/weekends/thanksgiving5.htm Note that TS2 still has the record by about $30 million, but that is somewhat understandable as it is the biggest sequel to have opened that weekend. Also, it is the 6th highest 3-day (Friday-Sunday) Thanksgiving weekend. The big difference there is that #2-5 (TS2 is #1 on that list as well) all were in their second weekends. Here is that chart: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/a lltime/weekends/thanksgiving3.htm All this is kind of interesting, but also not extraordinarily meaningful, though. The bottom line is that "Enchanted" did extremely well this weekend. Of course, the really important measure will be how well it holds up next weekend. I suspect word-of-mouth is going to be pretty positive on this one, but next week's box-office should give a better idea about that. -Jeff
12	Dlmusic Fri 11/30/2007 2:18p	This weekend will be crucial for the movie. The weekday numbers have been quite soft, and this weekend tends to among the lowest in the year. Am I the only one who thinks Disney should have used the more traditional weekend before Thanksgiving release date? Unless it develops some insane legs, $200 million seems out of the question for of the better reviewed films of the year with a wide audience. If they would have released it the weekend before Thanksgiving, they could have gotten two strong weeks out of it. Right now $150 seems to be a good benchmark for success based on the opening weekend.
13	BlueOhanaTerror Sat 12/1/2007 1:26a	>>>Unless it develops some insane legs, $200 million seems out of the question for of the better reviewed films of the year with a wide audience. If they would have released it the weekend before Thanksgiving, they could have gotten two strong weeks out of it.<<< A lot of folks said exactly that about RATATOUILLE, too. Just a few months ago.
14	Dlmusic Sat 12/1/2007 6:55a	Enchanted gained some percentage points on Thursday, which is good. If the film can stabilize it should be able to rebound well over the weekend. <<A lot of folks said exactly that about RATATOUILLE, too. Just a few months ago.>> 7 days into Ratatouille's release it made $80.5 million, 7 days into Enchanted's release it made $51.5 million. So even if it does as well as Ratatouille (and that film had tremendous legs) you're still looking at a cap of around $180 million. I'm not saying $200 million is impossible, it's just highly improbable with a fairly soft opening weekend of $34.4 million. Honestly, $150+ million seems to be quite succesful enough anyway.
15	Sport Goofy Sat 12/1/2007 7:00a	Historically, the Christmas holiday season isn't as predictable for the long-term glide slope of box office receipts. It's not unusual for a film to get more than half of its total box office during the Christmas holiday break, even after being in release for 3 or 4 weeks. Once schools let out for the break, family oriented films tend to take on a whole new life and you start seeing summer-like box office returns. Probably the biggest question mark this year is how the extra week between the Thanksgiving holiday and Christmas will affect Thanksgiving films -- any additional time in release makes it hard for a film to maintain currency in a market where each weekend brings more and more films to the screen. Right now, Enchanted is performing on par with other "blockbuster" films that Disney has released during Thanksgiving. Aside from the extra week before the Christmas break, there's no reason to think it can't reach blockbuster status as well based on past trends.
16	Sport Goofy Sat 12/1/2007 7:02a	<< 7 days into Ratatouille's release it made $80.5 million, 7 days into Enchanted's release it made $51.5 million. So even if it does as well as Ratatouille (and that film had tremendous legs) you're still looking at a cap of around $180 million. >> You can't compare the two that way because they were released in entirely different seasons. Ratatouille had the benefit of being released during a time when schools were out and you have maximum weekday attendance for films. Enchanted is seeing the typical weekday returns for when school is in session. It would be nearly impossible for any film to generate the same returns in a 7-day period as a summer release given the demographic differences in weekday movie audiences during the two entirely different periods.
17	Dlmusic Sat 12/1/2007 7:20a	<<. Right now, Enchanted is performing on par with other "blockbuster" films that Disney has released during Thanksgiving.>> Disney doesn't release films on Thanksgiving though, that was my point. Most films go into Thanksgiving with an opening weekend very similar to Enchanted's holiday weekend. Here are some numbers for 2nd week being Thanksgiving (total at that point/total at end of run) Happy Feet - $37 million ($99 million/$198 million) Harry Potter 4 - $54.7 million ($201 million/$290 million) National Treasure $32.2 million ($87.5 million/$173 million) The Cat in the Hat $24.5 million (76 million/$101 million) All other big "Thanksgiving" movies are released even earlier to take advantage of the the Thanksgiving boost. If you look at these numbers then Enchanted has a way to go to get to National Treasure level, since that film had almost the same number on Thanksgiving weekend but had already build up almost $50 million before that point. <<It would be nearly impossible for any film to generate the same returns in a 7-day period as a summer release given the demographic differences in weekday movie audiences during the two entirely different periods.>> But Enchanted had the holiday weekend, so the weekend numbers should have been higher. Just comparing weekend numbers to weekend numbers Enchanted is still behind Ratatouille by $13 million which still means it would come short of $200 million. I personally don't think of $200 million as some "must hit" goal or something, I was just pointing it out. I think $150 million for a live action family film is excellent and is something I'm sure the company would be happy with especially considering all the residual sales from merchandise and what not. I'll be very interested to see how the movie holds up this weekend. Films traditionally fall about 50-60% the week after Thanksgiving. If that happens to Enchanted than $150 million will be a challenge. I'm holding out hope for a 40% drop.
18	Sport Goofy Sat 12/1/2007 10:53a	<< I'll be very interested to see how the movie holds up this weekend. Films traditionally fall about 50-60% the week after Thanksgiving. >> To complete your assessment, you need to provide the percent boost that the same films get when the Christmas break for school children begins. The second week drop is really irrelevant with respect to total returns over the holidays. << Here are some numbers for 2nd week being Thanksgiving (total at that point/total at end of run) >> Why didn't you include any of Disney's previous Thanksgiving releases for your comparison? Toy Story, Toy Story 2, and Aladdin are just a few that come to mind. All made less than Enchated on a Thanksgiving weekend opening but went on to much bigger box office returns. You continue to compare apples to oranges in trying to analyze this stuff when there are plenty of apple to apple comparisons that would make a lot more sense.
19	DlandDug Mon 12/3/2007 9:12a	From BoxOfficeMojo: >>Enchanted extended its reign with an estimated $17 million. Disney's fantasy comedy's 51 percent drop was solid by post-Thanksgiving standards for family fare, though its gross wasn't terribly rosy. By comparison, Bee Movie and Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium dove around 60 percent each. In 12 days, Enchanted has tallied $70.6 million.<< http://www.boxofficemojo.com/n ews/?id=2428&p=.htm So while there was quite a drop, the site (which gave the film itself a bad review) says that this is "solid." If you look at the numbers day by day, it was the Thanksgiving weekend numbers that are skewing this thing. The drops on Thursday and Friday were 83 and 65 per cent respectively. Saturday and Sunday, on the other hand, were a very respectable 44 and 33 per cent. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/m ovies/?page=daily&id=enchanted.htm I think that Enchanted will hang around all the way through the holidays and rack up some very impressive numbers. Bear in mind that there are still some great marketing angles for this one. The "second campaign" is already in full swing. First it was a slightly wacky fish-out-of-water comedy, now they are emphasizing the romance. They can also sell it for the strong fantasy elements, as a bona fide musical, and finally for its stars (Patrick Dempsey's TV base, and Amy Adams new legion of followers).
20	Witches of Morva Mon 12/3/2007 9:16a	ORWEN: Us Cauldrong girls can't begin to tell you how many people we keep running into--both in Morva and elsewhere--who say they haven't seen the movie yet but that they really want to and intend to. Word of mouth is spreading. So we're sure that--before the end of the year is over with--a lot MORE people will be seeing this wonderful thing.

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