| # | Author | Message |
21
| Hans Reinhardt
Thu 5/15/2008 9:53a | "Gas has only taken a very sharp rise fairly recently."
Where have you been? Gas prices have been climbing steadily since last year.
Here is what the analysts are saying about Disney's theme park business:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/0...ndex.htm |
22
| jmuboy
Fri 5/16/2008 11:58a | Here are my opinions:
- "Hollywoodland" - big thumbs up on the nod to history. Will work better too with the period retheme of this area.
- "Cars Land" - still one of the MOST uncreative, overly contrived and unimaginative names I've seen come out of Disney. I like "Route 66" and hopefully Disney will change their mind in the final design phase on this area's name.
- Narnia ride / movie - don't think this is the best idea for a DCA movie. I agree I'd rather see Muppets keep playing.
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23
| WilliamK99
Sat 5/17/2008 9:24p | With the way Narnia is underperforming at the box office, I highly doubt we will see any attraction based on the movie in our lifetime. |
24
| bean
Sat 5/17/2008 9:51p | just out of curiosity,
how would you say the movie i underperforming since it was just released yesterday?
the movies opening is on track and the projection was for the movie to open at around 70 million over the weekend. Depending on todays numbers that is still quite possible.
Also the studio expected the movies box office to be stronger overseas where CS Lewis books are much more popular. |
25
| WilliamK99
Sat 5/17/2008 9:57p | Internal tracking had Disney hoping for 70 to 80 million dollar opening right now it is on track for 60 depending on the Saturday jump. Plus, this isn't Christmas where competition is light, with Indiana Jones on the horizon, and Iron Man still drawing in huge crowds, there is a good chance Narnia doesn't pull 200 million domestic, which does not bode well for Disney, when internally they were hoping for at least 300 million.
Honestly Disney needs to release the 3rd one in the winter which is more friendly towards fantasy films.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/d...6&p=.htm |
26
| bean
Sat 5/17/2008 10:56p | i had thought that the movie was expected to open at 60 to 70. i must have had my numbers wrong.
The total domestically you mention does sound about right.
thanks for the info |
27
| leemac
Sun 5/18/2008 3:54a | <<Plus, this isn't Christmas where competition is light, with Indiana Jones on the horizon, and Iron Man still drawing in huge crowds, there is a good chance Narnia doesn't pull 200 million domestic, which does not bode well for Disney, when internally they were hoping for at least 300 million.>>
Have to disagree with you there William. I think Disney got this one spot-on - Speed Racer has tanked (only $22m in its first week and only $2 on Friday) and that is the sole PG competition this weekend. Iron Man is still on more screens (Disney didn't push for 4,000+ this weekend) and that movie is a PG-13. Indy is also a PG-13 so isn't perfect family fare.
The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe did over 60% of its business overseas - it was massive everywhere - in the UK it did $77m, Japan $57m and France $33m. There aren't many $700m+ grossing movies out there.
Prince Caspian has had to deal with a Friday where kids were still in school - so to post nearly $20m then is pretty phenomenal from less than 4,000 screens.
Even if the movie grosses c.$60m this weekend with the holiday next week and the fact that Indy will be a sell-out everywhere (unless the reviews are as stinking as has been suggested on sites like aicn.com - it opens in Cannes tonight) I think it will hold its own for a few weeks. I don't think $200m is out of reach at all. This one will run. |
28
| WilliamK99
Sun 5/18/2008 4:43a | Even if the movie grosses c.$60m this weekend with the holiday next week and the fact that Indy will be a sell-out everywhere (unless the reviews are as stinking as has been suggested on sites like aicn.com - it opens in Cannes tonight) I think it will hold its own for a few weeks. I don't think $200m is out of reach at all. This one will run.<<
But most of the sell out runoffs will go to Iron Man which is having the best hold I have seen in years, sub 50% drops thus far which is unheard of for summer blockbusters these days.
I think the story will be told next week lee, if Narnia drops over 50% over the Memorial Day Weekend it will be an unmitigated disaster for Disney. Correct me if I am wrong but the budget with marketing for Narnia is in excess of 250 million.
We'll see over the next few weeks, but from the way I am looking at it unless it has a 3.0 or above multiplier, it will gross less than 200 million domestically. |
29
| WorldDisney
Sun 5/18/2008 5:45a | All over the movie boards, people have been saying this movie is basically disappointing and that Disney expected it to achieve around $200+ million domestically alone, I guess around what the first one did. Personally I found the first one a complete and utter bore and its playing here in now in Korea, but won't bother.
I think with Speed Racer tanking and Narnia basically doing much less than expected, it will clear the way for Indiana Jones next weekend. THAT film, assuming reviews are good, will be cleaning up since there hasn't been a very strong movie in the marketplace since Ironman. Ironically, it will be by Paramount, which released Ironman lol.
But if Indy 4 disappoints as well, the summer season is looking bad financially. |
30
| leemac
Sun 5/18/2008 6:12a | <<All over the movie boards, people have been saying this movie is basically disappointing and that Disney expected it to achieve around $200+ million domestically alone, I guess around what the first one did. Personally I found the first one a complete and utter bore and its playing here in now in Korea, but won't bother.>>
Really? Critics enjoyed it - all of the top reviewers thought it was a good movie. It has 70% on Rotten Tomatoes amongst reviewers and 80% amongst the RT community - that seems pretty strong to me. |
