Walt Disney World General
Topic: Shattered Disney Dreams?

#	Author	Message
1	Spirit of 74 Fri 6/6/2008 11:26a	As I watch the chimp talk on TV and try to convince the great unwashed masses that the reason why we have a job problem is because there are too many teens entering the market and the reason gas is headed toward $8 a gallon is because that damn Congress won't let his oil cronies drill wherever they want etc ... I must say I'm just waiting for the floor to drop out on WDW and the theme park business as a whole. It's been very quiet at WDI for 8-9 months now in terms of future plans for the parks and I think it's quite simple: Disney isn't going to be going through on almost every plan you've heard ... all those grandiose plans for DCA? Don't count on it? New attractions in Florida? Doubt it. Expansion in HK? Well, that's not here, so that's still in play. The economists/marketing people who really run Disney may be stupid, but they're not idiots. They see the future when the airlines this week announced thousands of layoffs, when GM announced more factory closures, when even Ed McMahon is about to be foreclosed upon. They're telling Bob Iger what anyone here who isn't high or very wealthy already knows, that our economy is a complete and utter disaster (again, unless you're a corporation or very wealthy or just believe your preacher on Sunday when he tells you that the man upstairs sent George to lead and you gotta keep the faith even as you lose your health insurance or home)and that Disney vacations aren't going to be a priority when simple matters of survival are. Sorry to sound dire, but I'm awake and can see what's going on around me. And when I talk to people in Glendale and Burbank about future parks plans, I just get vagaries now ... as in 'well, we're working on (fill in the blank) but there's no timeline' ... that to me speaks volumes. I know a major announcement was supposed to be coming at DCA's MM opening and that it is no longer the case. Some folks will say 'oh, that's just because Disney doesn't have to tip its hand now that the SunCal housing deal is dead and buried.' Simply not the case. Disney doesn't want to commit to ANY major investment or reinvestment in its parks under the current climate. And it isn't the kind of thing we'll be out of tomorrow (unless you believe we won't have troops in Iraq in 20 years). So bookings are still solid, although watch the cancelations for late summer and beyond start to pick up speed. (oh, oil is up $10.47 as we speak ...) I'll just leave you with this, if it isn't DVC, don't expect construction anytime soon beyond what's been officially announced and begun! Now let's all put on some happy Disney music and pretend that our country isn't one massive disaster.
2	SoThisIsLove Fri 6/6/2008 11:35a	But...it's a great, big beautiful tomorrow isn't it? :( I hope what you've said isn't going to really come true. While the USA is struggling, how about places where the currency vs the dollar is good? Will that bring enough economic activity to keep things shored up during the next little while? I'm not an insider or an economist, so please forgive in advance if my questions sound naive. They are. *feeling like curling up in the fetal position and listening to the happy Disney music*
3	demderedoseguys Fri 6/6/2008 11:38a	Heard last night on the news that the airlines have cut flights to Orlando by 20%.
4	Spirit of 74 Fri 6/6/2008 11:53a	<<I hope what you've said isn't going to really come true. While the USA is struggling, how about places where the currency vs the dollar is good? Will that bring enough economic activity to keep things shored up during the next little while?>> Oil is up 44% thus far in 2008. We just hit $139 a barrel. I'm trying very hard to not be political here because I am well aware that Disney fans tend to skiew to the right. But things are a disaster and they're only going to get worse. We're in for a long, hot summer. As to the strength of the dollar ... soon it will be worth whatever Cuban currency is worth. <<I'm not an insider or an economist, so please forgive in advance if my questions sound naive. They are.>> I'm not either. But I know the basics. And I see what is happening. I really hope all those folks wake up before the next election (not that anyone is going to be able to clean this mess up). <<*feeling like curling up in the fetal position and listening to the happy Disney music*>> So do I ... so do I. I'd get in my car and drive to WDW, but I really don't feel like spending over $100 on gas and tolls only to go pay for a WDW meal that has jumped 20-30% since a year ago. Maybe I'll just go down to my community pool and watch how my neighbors (who have very nice second homes here, but are mostly wealthy South Americans) are taking it all in stride! ;-)
5	SoThisIsLove Fri 6/6/2008 11:56a	{{{{Spirit of 74}}}}}
6	Spirit of 74 Fri 6/6/2008 11:57a	<<Heard last night on the news that the airlines have cut flights to Orlando by 20%.>> It's actually higher on some airlines -- AirTran, Continental and Delta. Orlando is almost exclusively a leisure market and that means the fares are much lower, plus you have many frequent fliers using miles to take the family on a vacation. So, even in the best of times, it's not a market the airlines roll in cash over ... Las Vegas is seeing similar sized cutbacks for the same reasons. But none of it bodes well for our economy or WDW. That's why I wouldn't be shocked to see the next DVC resort (not Contemporary) start construction soon. Disney is going to have to pull the profits from somewhere after all.
7	davewasbaloo Fri 6/6/2008 12:11p	and don't count on the Europeans. times are tough here, and despite the dollar being worth very little, flights jumped up by 40% overnight, food is a lot more expensive. Heck, even parking at the train station went up 10% in the last 6 months. Now you are seeing why DLP really had problems in Frnace. The economy is still not as bad as it was in 1993. Sad times indeed.
8	mousermerf Fri 6/6/2008 12:14p	The airline that handles 1/5 of all traffic to MCO is also the strongest domestic airline and has only marginally done anything to its flights to MCO, moreso changing the planes to a different departure point to fit need.
9	Spirit of 74 Fri 6/6/2008 12:21p	<<and don't count on the Europeans. times are tough here, and despite the dollar being worth very little, flights jumped up by 40% overnight, food is a lot more expensive. Heck, even parking at the train station went up 10% in the last 6 months.>> Dave, I think that's what the beancounters are saying. They haven't been overly concerned with the direction of our economy over the past year to 18 months, even with the housing crisis. But I believe they're looking at Europe and starting to get very, very concerned. That's why they're so desperate to get as much DVC cash as quickly as possible. My gut tells me that the WDW parks are going to resemble ghosttowns by mid-August at this rate. I guess I'll know by the discounts. So far, they haven't been great (just got an email offer of $94 for a value, yeah, I'll rush to book that) ... but when those $49 rooms at the values return and $89 at the mods <<Now you are seeing why DLP really had problems in Frnace. The economy is still not as bad as it was in 1993. Sad times indeed.>> The problem is I don't think we've even hit the bottom ... and then the hole in the floor opens.
10	Spirit of 74 Fri 6/6/2008 12:23p	<<The airline that handles 1/5 of all traffic to MCO is also the strongest domestic airline and has only marginally done anything to its flights to MCO, moreso changing the planes to a different departure point to fit need. >> Bottom line is Orlando is losing a tremendous amount of seats across the board. There's no spinning it as anything but bad for Disney, Universal, Busch and well Floridians!

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