| # | Author | Message |
21
| Dlmusic
Fri 7/4/2008 9:05p | With the first week down WALL-E has so far done fantastic! It's the second highest week for a Pixar film (less than 3 million behind Finding Nemo) and it has the record for the best Friday and Monday for an opening week.
An interesting point is that Ratatouille and Incredibles had both gotten a holiday boost already. Although it is important to note that Incredibles and Finding Nemo did premiere when school was in session leading to mid-week grosses to be lower. The distance between Finding Nemo and WALL-E might increase this weekend since WALL-E might not increase as high as Finding Nemo. However, considering the holiday weekend, it might not be until next week that the gap gets wider.
Another interesting note is that Cars also premiered at at a time when school was out of session and did not feature a holiday in it's first seven days, so it makes a clearer comparison to WALL-E's performance. After the opening weekend WALL-E was $3 million ahead of Cars, and now it's $11.5 million ahead.
Based on these early numbers, it seems likely WALL-E is headed for a $250+ million gross and still has potential for over $300 million if this weekend goes very well. |
22
| skinnerbox
Sat 7/5/2008 9:21p | "Based on these early numbers, it seems likely WALL-E is headed for a $250+ million gross and still has potential for over $300 million if this weekend goes very well."
Not likely. Box Office Mojo has already estimated Thursday at $8.4 million and Friday at $9.2 million. (Ratatouille did over $10 million on July 4 last year.) Hancock will easily win the holiday weekend with an estimated $17 million for Thursday and almost $19 million for Friday. Hancock has already earned an estimated $60 million in less than four days and shows no evidence of slowing anytime soon.
WALL*E will most likely fall to single digit daily results until next weekend, then return to single digit for the remainder of the summer given the anticipated films yet to release such as Dark Knight. If the domestic box office significantly surpasses Ratatouille ($206.5 million) I will be very surprised. The best I can see for WALL*E is around $220 million give or take. |
23
| DAR
Sun 7/6/2008 4:35p | It's surpassing Ratatouille and still has a chance to surpass 250 million. Of course it does depress me that the last two Shrek films made more than the last few Pixar films. |
24
| skinnerbox
Sat 7/12/2008 9:59p | "It's surpassing Ratatouille and still has a chance to surpass 250 million."
I do not expect WALL*E to earn over $250 million. In fact, WALL*E is not actually "surpassing" Ratatouille since opening weekend. WALL*E earned more than Rat by $16 million, $47 million versus $63 million. And at this time last year, Rat was down by only $20 million at $130 million compared to WALL*E now at $150 million. Not a great difference between $16 million and $20 million for a film that cost $180 million to produce.
WALL*E is actually pretty much on pace with Ratatouille's performance which pulled in over $206 million in its domestic run. I do not expect WALL*E to earn more than $20 million beyond that, give or take. My original projection of $220 million still looks more likely. Not great when WALL*E cost $30 million more to produce than Rat. Pixar needs WALL*E to do very well overseas as Rat did. |
25
| Sport Goofy
Sun 7/13/2008 8:23a | I finally saw Wall*E last night. The theater was empty. I went to the 7:05 PM showing on a Saturday night. There weren't any other concurrent showings.
I thought the film was great, but probably not one that is going to be judged highly based on box office performance alone. |
26
| DlandDug
Sun 7/13/2008 11:02p | >>In fact, WALL*E is not actually "surpassing" Ratatouille since opening weekend.<<
This is an odd, odd statement when one looks at the box office figures.
Ratatouille opening weekend: $47 million
Wall-E opening weekend: $63 million
Difference: $16 million
Ratatouille second week cumulative: $109.5 million
Wall-E second week cumulative: $127 million
Difference: $17.5 million
Ratatouille third week cumulative: $143 million
Wall-E third week cumulative: $162.7 million
Difference: $19.7 million
Wall-E is clearly outpacing Ratatouille's box office. And the Rat did quite well, despite all the dire predictions on discussion boards like this.
Anecdotally speaking, I went back to see Wall-E this last Saturday morning and the theater was packed. It should also be noted that the Wall-E merchandise appears to be selling through. This was certainly not true of Ratatouille's many, many cooking sets. |
27
| DlandDug
Sun 7/13/2008 11:21p | Comparisons to Ratatouille are also flawed when one considers the differences in rest of the field from 2007 to 2008.
Yes, Hancock is sucking up a lot of ticket sales. It earned more than twice as much as Ratatouille's challenger last year (Transformers) did on July 4. Even more telling, this year Wanted (at $20 million) earned as much as ALL EIGHT of the films that followed Ratatouille in 2007.
It seems reasonable that Wall-E will continue to outpace Ratatouille, given its strong performance in a very competitive field. (Dark Knight still hasn't opened.) And in the long run, it's long runs that keep racking up the totals. |
28
| skinnerbox
Wed 7/16/2008 4:44p | "This is an odd, odd statement when one looks at the box office figures."
If you had read my post you would have realized that is where my data came from.
I specifically stated that the difference between the 2 films for opening weekend was $16 million. Then after 2 weeks in the theaters the difference became $20 million. Only a gain of $4 million over a 2 week period.
Care to guess what the difference is between the 2 films as of Tuesday July 15? You got it: $20 million.
WALL*E is NOT "surpassing" Ratatouille. It did $16 million more during opening weekend compared to Rat then gained a modest $4 million more during the next 2 weeks. But the momentum is gone.
WALL*E is being shown on 224 more screens than Rat was at this time last year with slightly higher ticket prices but is averaging about the same take. The past 5 days saw WALL*E take $23.8 million versus $23.4 million for Rat during the same 5 days (second July weekend Friday through Tuesday) last year. Less than half a million difference for a long summer weekend.
I doubt WALL*E will finish the summer more than $20 million ahead of Ratatouille. |
29
| DlandDug
Thu 7/17/2008 2:01a | Whether the "momentum" is gone or not, the fact that Wall.E has been running consistently ahead of Ratatouille's box office totals shows that it has been, and continues to surpass it.
What is the meaning of the analysis that a film that ends "only" twenty million dollars ahead of another fails to surpass it? |
30
| skinnerbox
Thu 7/17/2008 6:17p | "What is the meaning of the analysis that a film that ends "only" twenty million dollars ahead of another fails to surpass it?"
First off the "end" is not here yet. WALL*E was released just 3 weeks ago.
As of yesterday that $20 million margin has narrowed to $18.8 million. Rat was earning more dollars per screen than WALL*E has been earning this past week.
The only reason WALL*E has a higher box total than Rat AT THIS TIME is because of opening weekend. But that $16 million margin from opening weekend is narrowing. Dark Knight will only hasten it. |
